Middle East war spurs emissions from oil and gas sites, satellites show

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DUBAI – The conflict in the Middle East appears to have forced some oil and gas companies to directly burn off more natural gas than usual as their facilities have come under attack or exports have been blocked, releasing planet-warming pollution. 

An increase in emissions is a relatively minor issue against the loss of life and economic chaos wrought by the war, yet it shows one of many unanticipated consequences from the fighting.

Before the war, efforts to cut down on excess flaring had become a focus for investors keen to rein in waste and greenhouse gases. 

From Feb 28 to March 22, the United Arab Emirates’ Das Island liquefied natural gas plant flared enough to add the equivalent of about 74,100 tonnes of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, according to analysis by investigative consultancy Data Desk and Bloomberg calculations.

Meanwhile, Qatar’s Ras Laffan facility, the world’s largest LNG export hub, added roughly 101,300 tonnes of CO2 equivalent, on par with the annual emissions from more than 20,000 cars.

Higher flaring volumes are “likely linked to facility shutdowns, whether following direct strikes, as a preventive measure, or because of limited storage capacity elsewhere,” said BloombergNEF analyst Maria-Olivia Torcea.

That “may have required a controlled release of gas from pipes, vessels and other equipment through venting and flaring”, she said.

The emissions open a new window into the conflict’s growing carbon footprint, revealing how greenhouse gases can spike when fossil fuel infrastructure is targeted. 

When LNG can’t be exported or used, operators either burn it off or vent it into the atmosphere, releasing CO2 or even more potent methane, at levels detectable by satellites. 

Analysts and researchers have been sifting through satellite data, social media and official statements to assess damage and calculate emissions from oil and gas facilities. 

Multiple observers parsing these images, including data company Capterio Ltd, have seen an uptick in flaring across the region since the war started. 

“There is also consistently high flaring at Iran’s Kharg Island, further indicating a slowing of exports of cargoes,” said Mr Mark Davis, Capterio’s chief executive officer.

On March 21, three days after a major attack, Ras Laffan flared enough natural gas to emit an estimated 6,200 metric tons of CO2 and methane, more than twice the average rate observed in 2025, according to Data Desk.

Analysis from Capterio shows that flaring also rose on March 19 at multiple other sites in the region.

The researchers detected increased flaring by monitoring the temperature and location of known heat sources measured via satellites. 

It’s also possible that significant amounts of carbon and other pollution were released if storage tanks full of fuel were hit. 

An array of energy infrastructure has been damaged in the conflict, including the UAE’s biggest port and oil storage facility and fuel depots in Tehran.

But so far greenhouse-gas tracking groups and companies haven’t published any asset-level estimates of those emissions.

QatarEnergy, the state-owned administrator of Ras Laffan, Adnoc, the state-owned manger of Das Island, and Kharg Petrochemical Co, which operates some of Iran’s Kharg facilities, didn’t respond to requests for comment on emissions resulting from war disruptions.

Export flows have slowed to a near standstill with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, while companies also are taking precautions to limit damage from potential strikes. 

The barrage has caused oil and natural gas prices to surge.

On the other hand, there have also been reductions in flaring when facilities have been shut preemptively.

That includes the Ruwais refinery in the UAE and some sites in Iraq.

The war’s broader impact on emissions is likely to be many times greater and hard to calculate precisely.

The Israel-Gaza conflict may have resulted in 33 million tonnes of CO2 equivalent emissions in its first 15 months, according to a peer-reviewed study in the journal One Earth published on March 19.

That would match the annual CO2 emissions of Ireland. 

Another study published from the Climate & Community Institute put the Iran war’s emissions until March 14 at about 5 million tons of CO2 equivalent.

This included estimates from damaged buildings, alongside emissions related to equipment and weapons.

In normal times, Ras Laffan flares comparably little gas per unit of energy sold compared with many other producers. 

An analysis published in November by Capterio’s Davis found that Qatar’s emissions were below 0.2 per cent of throughput.

In some countries, flaring can reach as high as 4 per cent of throughput.

Qatar flares about one billion cubic meters of gas each year, according to satellite-based estimates published by the World Bank.

QatarEnergy, which manages the nation’s hydrocarbons and Ras Laffan, has pledged to achieve zero routine flaring by 2030, though LNG facilities and other downstream assets, such as oil refineries, are exempt from this commitment.

Outside of war, Data Desk’s analysis and the study by Capterio’s Mr Davis show that lower flaring can mean less gas waste, fewer emissions and more revenue for oil and gas companies.

However, those reductions can only be achieved with sustained effort. 

The conflict can have longer-term consequences for producers’ priorities and commitments to curb flaring and methane emissions.

“Energy production, energy security and revenue generation drivers are going to be far more important to almost any player around the world,” Mr Davis said. “I imagine this is going to slow down or deprioritise the focus on emissions reduction.” BLOOMBERG